The Currency of Change

As the global shift toward digital payments accelerates, the question isn’t about speed but readiness. From Scandinavia to Southeast Asia, recent trends show a growing momentum away from physical currency. Yet concerns around access, infrastructure, and stability suggest the world may not quite be ready to leave cash behind… or are we? 

by Anamaria Roa

The short answer is no. At least not right now. Though the future of money is moving towards a predominantly digital and cashless society, the ecosystem that it needs to fully thrive is simply not ready.

While some economies are more ready for cashless societies than others, not a single country has completely abandoned the physical currency just yet.

So why the hesitation? What are we waiting for? And will the time ever come for cash to be as obsolete as the dial-up modem, still remembered, occasionally missed, but ultimately left behind by progress?

Imagining 2037: Scenarios for a Shifting Landscape

Despite the steady rise of contactless and mobile payments, cash isn’t vanishing without a fight. A recent study by the Deutsche Bundesbank, Cash of the Future, tackles the evolving role of physical money, not by predicting outcomes, but by imagining three distinct futures for the year 2037. The result? A look at what might come, and why cash is still “king.”

• Scenario One: Cash fades into near-obsolescence as digital payment dominates everyday life. Technology moves fast, and convenience wins out. Cash becomes a niche tool, used by only a few for specific purposes. Think tips or emergencies.
• Scenario Two: Dubbed as the “Cash Renaissance”, this scenario envisions a surprising rebound. Triggered by growing concern over data privacy, surveillance, and the fragility of digital systems, consumers begin to value cash not just as a way to pay, but as a symbol of autonomy. In this world, bills and coins coexist with apps and wearables, but play a more visible role than many anticipated.
• Third Scenario: Considered the most likely of the three, this hybrid scenario sees cash lingering in the background, still present, but incredibly unused. This gradual fade creates its own problems: when infrastructure like ATMs and cash registers fall into despair, even those who rely on cash may find it harder to access or use.

Around the World: Is Cash King?

While the idea of a cashless society might feel inevitable to some, the global picture is far from uniform. In some parts of the world, cash is quietly fading into obsolescence, while in some parts it’s holding its ground. Sometimes, even making a comeback.

The speed and direction of change vary heavily depending on culture, infrastructure, trust in institutions, and access to technology.

In countries like Sweden, the decline of cash is nearly complete. Just 10% of transactions are now made with physical money, and mobile payments dominate daily life. However, the government has urged citizens to keep some cash for security. In times of crisis, digital systems are vulnerable, and physical currency offers a safety net.

Neighboring Norway is even further ahead in the cashless race. With only 2-3% of point-of-sale transactions conducted in cash. Denmark follows closely behind, where cash payments dropped to just 11% of physical retail activity by 2023. Further ahead, Australia has seen a dramatic shift. Cash accounted for 70% of payments in 2007, and by 2022, that number had dropped to 13%. Analysts now predict the country will be functionally cashless by the end of the decade. Even Germany, Mexico, and Colombia, traditionally cash heavy countries, are shifting with decreasing cash transitions between 2014 and 2024. Nigeria recorded a 59% decline in cash usage between 2014 and 2024, the largest among seven key markets analyzed.

In Asia, the move towards digital is varied. Japan is on the cusp of reaching its 40% cashless payment target. In Vietnam, cashless transactions skyrocketed by over 50% in 2023 alone. Indonesia and the Philippines are seeing similar rapid declines in cash use, driven by financial inclusion policies and mobile banking.

But not everyone is ready to let go of their cash. In Switzerland, roughly one-third of all payments are still made with cash. The Swiss National Bank is even preparing a new series of banknotes, signaling a long-term commitment to cash infrastructure. Similarly, France values the option to use cash.

But, as the scenarios suggest, any pivot in global relations, technology advancements, and environmental factors can quickly turn the tide on these initiatives.

The Takeaway

The death of cash has been greatly exaggerated. While multiple reports indicate the rise of digital payment methods, the transition away from cash and traditional cards is uneven across regions.
While some nations are racing toward digital dominance, others are taking a more cautious or pluralistic approach.

Cash remains vital not just for privacy and choice, but for economic inclusion. It’s the only payment method that doesn’t require a device, data plan, or a bank account. That makes it not just a relic of the past, but potentially a safety net for the future.

Though we are not ready today for a cashless world, perhaps in a decade the climate and tide will change favorably towards a truly cashless society.